LEILA FADEL, HOST:
We heard about Israel there. Now we want to go deeper on what Iran might do. For that, we're now joined by Vali Nasr. He is a professor of Middle East studies at Johns Hopkins University and the author of "Iran's Grand Strategy: A Political History." Good morning, and welcome to the program.
VALI NASR: Good morning. Thank you.
FADEL: I want to start with how you view the U.S. strikes on Iran. President Trump called them a complete and total success, claimed the U.S. destroyed Iran's nuclear facilities. What do you think?
NASR: Well, I think talking in terms of just military strikes, they were successful. But it remains to be seen whether they achieved their goal. In other words, it's not known how much of the Fordo facility they damaged and whether the Fordo facility had actually been emptied out before it was struck by U.S. forces. And also, the regime is still standing. It's still fighting. It's still shooting missiles at Israel. And so the strikes did not change the tempo of the war, and Iran's nuclear program still is open to question.
FADEL: Now, right now Iran is promising a painful retaliation. The spokesperson for the Revolutionary Guard warned the U.S. You can start this war, but we'll be the ones who end it, he said. What options do you believe Iran is weighing right now when it comes to retaliation that they are saying they might carry out?
NASR: I think in the short term, they're just going to keep the U.S. guessing, which actually has impact on energy prices. It disrupts business in the region, and it also keeps Washington focused on what Iran might do. They will keep attacking Israel. They might try to close the Straits of Hormuz, although that's unlikely, and they might target U.S. bases. Or they may not do any of the above and actually have some other surprise up their sleeve. But I think they're - the main message is that they're not backing down, and they're going to continue the fight as it has been happening.
FADEL: You say the main message is that they're not backing down. So you don't see a situation in which the - which Iran doesn't retaliate at all, or does back down?
NASR: No, I think they will retaliate, but at a time of their own choosing. And it's not going to be exactly what the U.S. expects or when it expects it. I don't think they want to escalate with the U.S. I think they want to signal that they have - that they're survived, they're not defeated and that they're willing to hit back. But they don't want to give an excuse to the United States to escalate at this point.
FADEL: What are you hearing from inside Iran right now?
NASR: I think the people are anxious and angry. They are worried about where this war might go. They are also angry at their country having been attacked. After all, this is a foreign attack on their country. And the country's a bit shell-shocked, and its leadership were shocked at the beginning. But they had plans about how they might respond to an American Israeli attack, and I think they are following those plans at the moment.
FADEL: Do you believe these strikes and the U.S. getting involved in this war with Israel will change the political and diplomatic landscape in the Middle East?
NASR: I think so. I think - because the signal here is that the United States and Israel are willing and capable to settle all issues militarily and that international law, rules, diplomacy, et cetera, won't stand in their way. I think this will have a chilling impact on all countries in the region, be they United States and Israel's enemies or United and Israel's friends. I think it changes conception of security for everybody in the region.
FADEL: Now, you've written and studied Iran's strategy and political history for decades. What are the biggest signs that you're going to be watching for in the next few days or weeks as this continues?
NASR: Well, I'm going to - in the very short term, we haven't heard from Iran's supreme leader. I think that will give direction as to how Iran will move forward here, how intensely it might resist or take the challenge that it faces to United States and Israel. But I think I will look for whether or not Iran signals at some point that it's ready to change direction in this conflict, either for the worse or to engage the United States diplomatically to arrive at a de-escalation. But I don't see a major change of course for Iran. I think they're not sufficiently bowed to contemplate that they're going to throw in the towel, as President Trump demanded.
FADEL: Vali Nasr is a professor of international affairs and Middle East studies at Johns Hopkins University and the author of "Iran's Grand Strategy: A Political History." Thank you so much for your time and joining the program.
NASR: Thank you very much. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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