Presidential races typically drive turnout. But Colorado voters have plenty of other reasons to fill out their ballots this year, including statewide measures that would affect everything from abortion rights to mountain lion hunting to the way we vote, potentially defying conventional thinking about voter behavior.
Take Seth Stern, and unaffiliated voter from Granby who for 25 years has refused to vote for Republicans or Democrats in a U.S. presidential election and likely will choose a third-party option this year.
It鈥檚 the local issues, not who will occupy the White House for the next four years, that keep him showing up.
鈥淔or most rural and non-left-leaning Colorado voters, state and county government are the only levels where your voice matters,鈥� he argued. So the 45-year-old, who is running for a seat on the Granby Board of Trustees, plans to vote on every state ballot measure and a , along with all the state and local races in his community.
With 14 state measures and, depending on the voter鈥檚 home address, as many as a dozen local ones, some political experts worry that voter fatigue will set in before people reach the bottom of the ballot. But in Colorado this year, campaigns are hoping those down-ballot questions 鈥� and the emotionally charged campaigns around them 鈥� will excite voters enough to get them to fill in an oval for every question and race, including retention of dozens of judges.
Who votes, how and why
Data from the Secretary of State鈥檚 Office shows Colorado voter turnout surges during presidential elections and slumps during primaries and midterms.
In 2020, a presidential election year, the rate of active voter turnout in Colorado was , but only of active voters showed up for the midterm election in 2022.
鈥淧residential election years bring out more voters because voters and the political media pay far more attention to national politics than to state or local politics,鈥� said Seth Masket, a professor of political science and the director of the Center on American Politics at the University of Denver.
But with substantial funding also draw voters to the polls outside of presidential years, said Matt Childers, a political scientist who examined how citizen-initiated ballot measures affect voter turnout and wrote about it in
Ballot issues are generally more attractive to voters in a nonpresidential year 鈥渂ecause there鈥檚 nothing else going on,鈥� he said. 鈥淏ut that doesn鈥檛 mean in a presidential year they don鈥檛 matter. It鈥檚 just they鈥檙e going to matter on the margins, and it鈥檚 harder for those campaigns to really break through.鈥�
Here are five of the 14 statewide ballot measures The Colorado Sun and Childers agreed could be the most likely to break through to the largest number of voters.
- , which would prohibit hunting mountain lions, bobcats or lynx
- , which would impose a 6.5% excise tax on the sale of guns and ammunition to fund support for crime victims, mental and behavioral health programs for children and veterans, and school security programs
- , which would prevent the legislature from limiting abortion access in Colorado and repeal a provision in the state constitution prohibiting state dollars from being used to pay for abortions
- , which would remove the provision of the Colorado constitution saying only a marriage between a man and woman can be legally recognized by the state
- , which would change most of the state鈥檚 primaries so candidates from all parties run against each other, with the top four vote-getters advancing to a ranked choice voting general election
Voters surely care about the other nine ballot measures, to varying degrees. And one analyst says how they do vote could provide an interesting look at where Colorado voters are and how 鈥渂lue鈥� Colorado is. But that won鈥檛 become clear until November, when results will show who voted for what and how many voted to the end of the ballot.
Closing or widening the urban-rural divide: mountain lions and guns
Two of the five ballot measures The Sun chose coincided with the two topping Stern鈥檚 list.
Both 127 and KK, he said, 鈥渇all under what I see as the cultural struggle that鈥檚 taking place between a supermajority and the urban center of the state deciding that they really know better how people should be living.鈥�
He鈥檒l vote no on Proposition 127, 鈥渂ecause the people who introduced it are putting their own values ahead of what Colorado Parks and Wildlife has been able to do from the time they took over management of mountain lions,鈥� he said. 鈥淭he population has flourished, and yet they have decided that starving to death or being shot in an encounter with a human in a nonhunting environment is somehow superior to being hunted with dogs.鈥�
Craig Childs, an author and former hunter who lives in southwestern Colorado, said he鈥檚 voting yes on 127. 鈥淐urrent cat hunting is based on flawed policy and little connection to biology. This would give us a chance to reassess, see what cats do when not hunted and come back with a more sound policy when the hunting questions come up again.鈥�
Michelle Hughes, right, answers questions at the conclusion of a reproductive rights rally sponsored by the Harris-Walz campaign Oct. 7 at the Union Depot in Pueblo. (Mike Sweeney, Special to The Colorado Sun) Chris Keating, a political strategist and owner of , a Democratic political firm in Colorado, said he hasn鈥檛 heard much about 127 in San Miguel County, where he lives, nor does he think the measure will draw a crush of people to the ballot. But that鈥檚 not because they don鈥檛 care about it, he said. 鈥淚 just think the people that are super interested in talking about this issue are already voting. They may be county commissioners or something, or go to meetings. But these are people who are already in tune.鈥�
Julie Marshall, who is leading the outreach campaign in support of 127, said she thinks neither camp has 鈥減unched through the consciousness of the majority of voters,鈥� however. That could be good for if they can reach more voters before Election Day and explain 鈥渢his kind of hounding of lions and trapping of bobcats,鈥� she said.
She isn鈥檛 worried about Proposition 127 being so far down on the ballot voters won鈥檛 get to it, though: 鈥淚 opened my ballot this morning and it was at the top of page two.鈥�
And if roadside signs are an indicator, 127 is getting far more traction among rural voters than Proposition 114, which in 2020 asked Colorado voters if the state should reintroduce wolves west of the Continental Divide. , at times hovering within hundreds of votes of an automatic recount. In the end, it passed 51% to 49% and lost in all rural counties.
鈥淚 think it鈥檚 because people have been so and how badly that has gone thus far that they realize they need to be better organized and try to combat 127,鈥� said state Sen. Dylan Roberts, a Democrat whose District 8 encompasses 10 counties including Grand and Summit, where wolves were introduced in December and roam today. He said he saw sign after sign opposing the measure along Colorado 9 and U.S. 40 between Frisco and Steamboat Springs during a drive he took Oct. 7.
Signs opposing Colorado Proposition 127, which would ban the hunting of mountain lions, bobcats and lynx, line Colorado 9 and U.S. 40 in Grand County. Proposition 127 has galvanized voters on both sides of the issue, including those who believe 鈥渂allot box biology,鈥� in which citizens make wildlife management decisions through their votes, has no place in Colorado, and those who say there is no science backing up the need to manage mountain lion populations through hunting. (Jason Connolly, Special to The Colorado Sun) Dan Gates, one of 127鈥檚 biggest opponents, said even though he鈥檚 confident people will make the 鈥渞ight decision 鈥� given the length of the ballot, people making the right decision might come down to, do they really care about any of the issues or just check a box just to get it done and over with?鈥�
Gates represents Front Range hunters on the Colorado Wildlife Council and is executive director of Coloradans for Responsible Wildlife Management, a lobbying group that advocates for mountain lion hunting and trapping of fur-bearing animals.
Proposition KK: throttling gun sales or funding health care?
Stern says Proposition KK 鈥渋s just another measure to throttle gun sales and gun ownership,鈥� so he鈥檚 voting against it.
But Elizabeth Newman, public policy director at the , said 鈥渨hat we know is that a lot of times in Colorado, guns are being used to end someone鈥檚 life in suicide or in domestic violence. If someone has a firearm accessible, it is much more likely that an attempt can be successful. . Domestic violence deaths are increasing and are most often the result of the use of a gun. It鈥檚 our position that the industry profiting from guns (should) help address the costs and harm of gun violence.鈥�
Stern countered with statistics searchable on the FBI鈥檚 National Instant Criminal Background Check System: , 443,800 of them in Colorado. Guns were blamed for . There were .
The Granby gun shop Stern owns struggles to compete with internet stores, which are often retailing at less than his low-volume wholesale, he said. He said he believes the 6.5% sales tax 鈥渋s absolutely intended to crush as many small, independent gun stores as possible, and will yet again be another transfer of wealth under state Democrats from small business owners who are NOT making serious profits to major box stores and out of state vendors.鈥�
鈥淣ow the exceedingly anti-small-business state government is going to throw 6.5% on top of what I鈥檓 charging and it鈥檚 magically going to get better?鈥� he asked.
A bright pink piece of campaign literature placed in the credit card slot of a parking meter near the corner of 14th Street and Glenarm Place in downtown Denver urges voters to take a stance on Amendment 79. (Dana Coffield, The Colorado Sun) Not magically, according to Newman. 鈥� would generate support for veterans dealing with mental health and substance use issues. For behavioral health crises in youth. For school safety and violence prevention efforts, and for services for domestic violence victims and other victims of crime.鈥�
Groups that support women and children, like The Women鈥檚 Foundation of Colorado and The Colorado League of Women Voters, also support the measure. Meanwhile, Weld County commissioner Kevin Ross said many of his constituents oppose it. But Republican Sen. Cleave Simpson, whose District 6 encompasses nine 鈥減retty politically balanced鈥� counties in southwestern Colorado, said he hasn鈥檛 been asked about KK, 鈥渘ot once,鈥� even though rural voters including those related to gun ownership.
Lori Wiegel, principal at , a Republican political firm, says she鈥檚 unclear which messages are resonating with voters.
鈥淚 think really dug-in partisans may just look at anything on guns and say, 鈥業 know exactly how I feel,鈥� no matter what the specifics are,鈥� she said. 鈥淏ut there鈥檚 a whole group of people that are not that dug in, right? We have almost half of Colorado wanting to be unaffiliated with either party. (Maybe) they don鈥檛 have views on that issue. But they can parse things. And we also have a highly educated Colorado that does look at specifics, and does look up information and tries to figure out 鈥榟ow does this align with how I view the world?鈥欌��
Protecting access to abortion
Keating said he expects Amendment 79 to draw out plenty of voters.
鈥淭here鈥檚 a large majority in Colorado, maybe 70%, who think abortion should be legal, but ever since Trump and his Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, we鈥檝e underestimated Democrats and their turnout in elections,鈥� he said. 鈥淓very single time, they come out, so it actually is something that brings out progressives, people who believe in womens鈥� rights.鈥�
Alison Friedman Phillips, director of programs, policy and philanthropy at The Women鈥檚 Foundation of Colorado, thinks he could be right.
Polling by Global Strategy Group, a Democratic political firm, in 2022 .
The amendment would prevent the legislature from limiting abortion access in Colorado. It would also repeal a provision in the state constitution prohibiting state dollars from being used to pay for abortions.
And Phillips says the foundation helps voters identify ballot issues that 鈥渨ill really advance gender, racial and economic equity at the state level.鈥� They do this through events, civic engagement resources on their website, media partners, lawn signs and their voter guide, the , centered on women and children.
But even people who are fully politically engaged are a bit overwhelmed.
Recently, Phillips looked at her state ballot guide, known as the 鈥渂lue book,鈥� stacked next to her and her ballot, and thought, 鈥渙h my gosh,鈥� the three are 鈥渉istorically long and understandably a lot for voters to digest.鈥�
鈥淭hat being said, what we鈥檙e hearing and seeing from the people close to us is that they are really motivated to protect women鈥檚 progress and ensure economic freedoms and are really voting with women in mind.鈥�
Fortunately, Coloradans have the luxury of digesting their voting materials from the comfort of their home, she added. Still, she does wonder how many will take the time to fill out their entire ballot.
, but opponents of 79 are mobilized, and droves of them will mark the 鈥渘o鈥� box, said Marcie Little, executive director at Coloradans for the Protection of Women and Children, 鈥渂ecause anyone who is pro-life will vote against it.鈥�
鈥淧ro-life people are already unhappy that abortion is legal for all nine months in Colorado,鈥� she said. 鈥淏ut now, to say we want your tax dollars, too, that鈥檚 a slap in the face. Are we trying to work together for a Colorado that is at least somewhat representative of all views, or are we trying to shove pretty radical and extreme policies down the pro-life people鈥檚 throats? Seventy-nine certainly is galvanizing because we would never be able to pass any sort of regulations on abortion if it goes through.鈥�
Though 79 would enshrine access to abortion and other reproductive health care in the state constitution, the measure does not remove the law requiring parents to be notified if a child under age 18 seeks an abortion.
鈥淕enerally speaking, if people are concerned that something they have is about to be taken from them, historically, it has been a really good motivator for them to turn out to vote,鈥� said Masket, the DU professor.
LGBTQ+ voting in Colorado
The issues 1,200 young Black, brown and white voters said they cared about most when they were contacted by in 2021 were racial justice 鈥渁nd affirming our essential right to accessible and affordable reproductive care on the state and local levels,鈥� said Camila Navarrette, communications director for the liberal-leaning nonprofit which mobilizes young voters around issues like climate justice, higher education, student debt and economic justice.
鈥淵oung voters want a culture that replaces stigma and fear with dignity, access and affordability, and in which every Coloradan should be free to love who they want,鈥� she added.
New Era knows young people are issue-based voters. 鈥淲e don鈥檛 turn out for the candidates or political parties,鈥� Navarrette said. 鈥淲e turn out for the opportunities to create the liberated worlds we want to be a part of.鈥�
Amendment J could rally a lot of young voters, as it would remove the provision of the state constitution that states only one man and one woman can be recognized as married in Colorado. When it was referred to the ballot, it passed the House 46-14 and the Senate 29-5, with some Republicans in both chambers voting in favor.
The measure would strike a phrase in the Colorado constitution, added by voters in 2006, that recognizes only marriages between a man and a woman
Since gay marriage is legal and protected under a Colorado law that passed in 2013 and a U.S. Supreme Court ruling in 2015, it may not seem like a high-stakes issue. But with Justice Clarence Thomas saying, in 2022, that the court 鈥渟hould reconsider its substantive due process precedents that protect contraception, same-sex relationships, and same-sex marriage,鈥� many are worried a Trump Supreme Court could roll back LGBTQ+ protections.
Not if Navarette and many of the 250,000 New Era has registered since 2006 have their way. They are activated and planning to come out in droves to support LGBTQ+ rights and the right to have an abortion, she said. While they鈥檙e at it, they鈥檒l likely vote for other issues that protect women and children, she added.
Ranked choice voting and the very thoughtful electorate
Childers, the political scientist, said for the most part, like immigration and gun control get a lot more attention than less controversial matters.
Wedge issues also tend to draw out 鈥渓ow-engagement voters,鈥� who aren鈥檛 paying attention or absorbing campaign information, but are paying attention to the media or are issues people already care about, he added. 鈥淎nd they tend to get a lot more campaign spending鈥� on advertising, mailers and other outreach that often activates voters.
The measure would change most of the state鈥檚 primaries so candidates from all parties run against each other, with the top four vote-getters advancing to a ranked choice voting general election
But occasionally a seeming outlier rakes in the big bucks.
鈥淗ard to understand鈥� is how more than one person The Sun interviewed for this story described Proposition 131, which would change most of the state鈥檚 primaries so candidates from all parties run against each other, with the top four vote-getters advancing to a ranked choice voting general election.
Hard-to-understand issues can turn off voters because of the work it takes to make an informed decision on them.
If passes, it would not go into effect right away, if ever, because of a clause added to in counties of a certain size and with a specific demographic makeup to conduct ranked choice elections before a ranked choice election could be used in a race for state or federal office.
Members of the Abolitionist Society of Pueblo display anti-abortion signage during a reproductive rights rally sponsored by the Harris-Walz presidential campaign Oct. 7 in Pueblo. Spokesman Jason Smith said, 鈥淕od says 鈥榯hou shall not murder.鈥� We鈥檙e here to let people know we don鈥檛 support murder.鈥� (Mike Sweeney, Special to The Colorado Sun) The amendment also says Colorado could not move to the new primary system proposed by Colorado Voters First until that requirement has been met.
Of the nearly $9.3 million raised by Colorado Voters First, the issue committee supporting Proposition 131, as of Oct. 16, Kent Thiry, former CEO of DaVita, the lead proponent of the measure, had kicked in $1.43 million, while Unite America, an election reform nonprofit, contributed $4.68 million. Thiry is cochair of the Unite America board.
Supporters of the measure include a host of powerful legislators like U.S. Sen. John Hickenlooper and Gov. Jared Polis, both Democrats, and former U.S. Rep. Ken Buck, a Republican, as well as the Bipartisan Policy Center, the League of Women Voters and the Colorado Chamber of Commerce. Opponents include the Democratic Party, the Colorado GOP and the Green Party in Colorado.
A Keating Research poll in September showed that 56% of those polled said they would vote 鈥測es鈥� on the initiative, while another 8% said they were leaning toward voting 鈥測es.鈥� Another 21% said they would vote 鈥渘o鈥� on it, and 4% said they were leaning toward voting 鈥渘o.鈥� About 11% said they were not sure how they would vote or that they were completely undecided.
About 23% of Colorado voters are registered as Republican, 26% are registered as Democrats and nearly half of voters are unaffiliated.
The media can have a powerful sway over voters, Childers said. Voter turnout in general could be affected by pundits telling Coloradans their votes don鈥檛 count.
But Keating isn鈥檛 worried about those crying there are too many ballot measures.
鈥淭hey say that every year and then people end up voting.鈥�
Tracy Ross is a reporter for The Colorado Sun. Her work frequently appears on-air at 糖心vlog传媒 91.5 FM and online at 糖心vlog传媒.org. Contact Tracy at tracy@coloradosun.com.